Southern California housing market surprised economists by rallying in the midst of a pandemic. But the coronavirus may drag down home values after all.

“By the end of summer, buying will slacken and we expect home prices will show declines in metro areas that have been especially hard hit by the recession,” CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in a report Tuesday.

All states are “expected to experience a decline.” The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator predicts that 125 metro areas have at least a 75% probability of price decline by May 2021. The news is worse for the country’s casino capital. Prices in Las Vegas will plunge 20.1% as a plunge in tourism combines with values that were inflated before the pandemic, according to CoreLogic. And by May 2021, the national Home Price Index is expected to be down 6.6% from May this year.

Los Angeles County: Down 6.3% in the next year, in what would be the biggest dip since October 2009.

Orange County: 5.2% decrease in a year, the largest drop since August 2009.

Inland Empire: 2.4% dip in a year, the biggest decline since November 2011.

San Diego County: Home prices are forecasted to decline just 1.3% over the next 12 months.


Another Housing Forecast
Zillow forecasts basically flat pricing for the year ending May 2021: Los Angeles County, up 0.7%; San Bernardino County, up 0.5%; Orange County, up 0.1%; but Riverside County down 0.3%.